Thursday 2 July 2026 FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Day 5 Bulletin № 022

MM·26 Prediction Agent

The Expected
Points Bulletin

Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]

The Ledger

R32 · 29 Jun

10 pts

3 games · 2 pen KOs

R32 · 30 Jun

20 pts

FRA & MEX won · NOR upset

R32 · 1 Jul

20 pts

ENG & USA won · BEL 2–2 (90')

R32 · 2 Jul

30 pts

3 winners of 3 · no exact

790/3360points
thru R32 · day 5

Folio I — FT: Spain 3–0 Austria SoFi, Los Angeles · 3:00 PM ET

Spain v Austria

FIFA № 2 (~1867 pts) — vs — FIFA № 24 (~1599 pts)

Official Pick

2–0

E[pts] 10.7 · exact 12.4%

Spain are the day's banker (1.33) — Euro champions, unbeaten, and the only side yet to concede (5–0 aggregate, a field-best 0.21 xGA/game). Austria's first knockout since 1982 arrives with a leaky back line (six conceded, 1.60 xGA/game) fresh off a 3–3 shoot-out with Algeria. Spain control, Austria chase — a clean Spanish win is the play, with 1–0 the value hedge if the knocks to Williams & Pino blunt the wide game. FT 3–0 — the banker cruised: Oyarzabal finished Cucurella's move (36'), Porro headed in Baena's cross (66') and Oyarzabal added his brace late (89'); Unai Simón's shutout streak rolls on. Right result, one goal heavy — our 2–0 takes the winner, +10. Spain meet Portugal in the R16.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities

ESP 70%

19%

AUT 12%

Spain windraw (90')Austria win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 60%2.12 – 0.62

Twelve-month form & stylew 25%1.85 – 1.05

In-tournament xG model 4thw 15%2.04 – 0.54

FIFA ranking (We 74%)w 15%1.92 – 0.84

Last-match vs expectation v2Δ softened+0.16 / +0.04

Final modelρ -0.0062.18 – 0.77

Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %

AUT →
ESP ↓

5.30–0

4.00–1

1.60–2

0.40–3

0.10–4

11.31–0

8.81–1

3.41–2

0.91–3

0.21–4

12.42–0

9.62–1

3.72–2

1.02–3

0.22–4

9.03–0

7.03–1

2.73–2

0.73–3

0.13–4

4.94–0

3.84–1

1.54–2

0.44–3

0.14–4

Grid covers 92.8% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 56.6% · 90-minute scoreline

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

Score	P(exact)	E[points]
2–0◂ PLAY	12.4%	10.68
1–0	11.3%	10.36
2–1	9.6%	9.83
3–0	9.0%	9.66
3–1	7.0%	9.05
4–0	4.9%	8.43

Spain — form & style

Group H winner, 7 pts (GF5 GA0) — 0–0 Cape Verde, 4–0 Saudi Arabia, 1–0 Uruguay. The only unbeaten-and-unscored-on side in the field.
2.00 xG/game for, 0.21 against — Oyarzabal (2 goals) leads the line, Yamal the tournament's standout youngster.
Nico Williams & Pino carry knocks and likely sit — Baena keeps the left after his winner v Uruguay. No suspensions.

Austria — form & style

Group J runner-up, 4 pts (GF6 GA6) — beat Jordan 3–1, lost Argentina 0–2, drew Algeria 3–3 (Kalajdžić 90+5').
First WC knockout since 1982. Rangnick's press creates (1.20 xG/game) but the defence leaks 1.60 xGA/game.
Fully fit squad; Alaba cleared to lead the back line, Arnautović shakes off a knee knock.

Odds (FD): 1.33 / 5.25 / 10.0 · O2.5 1.74 · U2.5 1.87 xG ESP 2.00 · AUT 1.20 · final 2.18–0.77 · ρ -0.01 · FT 3–0 (Oyarzabal 36' & 89', Porro 66') → pick 2–0, winner +10

Folio II — FT: Portugal 2–1 Croatia BMO Field, Toronto · 7:00 PM ET

Portugal v Croatia

FIFA № 5 (~1768 pts) — vs — FIFA № 11 (~1715 pts)

Official Pick

1–0

E[pts] 9.2 · exact 13.0%

The first-ever WC meeting of Ronaldo (41) and Modrić (40), likely both men's farewell. The market makes Portugal clear favourites (1.67); the model is cooler — their attack went blunt against organised defences (one goal & 1.58 xG combined v DR Congo and Colombia) while Croatia win ugly, heavily outshot (2.8 xG for, 4.4 against) yet undefeated since MD1. Mid-90s heat in Toronto. A tight, low game — 1–0 and the Under are the play. FT 2–1 — one of the wildest finishes of the tournament: Perišić struck first (53'), Ronaldo levelled from the spot (68', his first WC knockout goal), Gonçalo Ramos glanced in Léão's cross at 90+4', and Gvardiol's 90+13' equaliser was ruled out by a hair's-breadth VAR offside. No extra time — 2–1 in ninety. Our 1–0 takes the winner, +10; Modrić's World Cup ends, Ronaldo's continues against Spain.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities

POR 53%

27%

CRO 20%

Portugal windraw (90')Croatia win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 60%1.69 – 0.82

Twelve-month form & stylew 25%1.55 – 1.15

In-tournament xG model 4thw 15%1.49 – 0.86

FIFA ranking (We 55%)w 15%1.37 – 1.16

Last-match vs expectation v2Δ softened-0.02 / -0.07

Final modelρ -0.0541.56 – 0.87

Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %

CRO →
POR ↓

9.40–0

7.00–1

3.30–2

1.00–3

0.20–4

13.01–0

12.61–1

5.21–2

1.51–3

0.31–4

10.72–0

9.32–1

4.12–2

1.22–3

0.32–4

5.63–0

4.93–1

2.13–2

0.63–3

0.13–4

2.24–0

1.94–1

0.84–2

0.24–3

0.14–4

Grid covers 97.6% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 43.9% · 90-minute scoreline

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

Score	P(exact)	E[points]
1–0◂ PLAY	13.0%	9.20
2–0	10.7%	8.49
2–1	9.3%	8.08
3–0	5.6%	6.95
3–1	4.9%	6.74
1–1	12.6%	6.45

Portugal — form & style

Group K runner-up, 5 pts (GF6 GA1) — drew DR Congo 1–1, thrashed Uzbekistan 5–0, drew Colombia 0–0.
Blunt v organised blocks: 0.70 xGOT combined in the two draws; Ronaldo caught offside 4× v Colombia.
Full-strength squad, no suspensions; Diogo Costa's line has conceded once (0.94 xGA/game). Léão off the bench.

Croatia — form & style

Group L runner-up, 6 pts (GF5 GA5) — lost England 2–4, beat Panama 1–0 & Ghana 2–1.
Winning ugly: 3rd-fewest shots in the field (0.93 xG/game) against 4.4 xG conceded — the worst shot balance still alive.
Modrić still runs the game — a screamer and his corner won MD3. Clean squad, tightened defence since England.

Odds (DK): 1.67 / 3.80 / 5.50 · O2.5 2.10 · U2.5 1.77 xG POR 1.40 · CRO 0.93 · final 1.56–0.87 · ρ -0.05 · FT 2–1 (Perišić 53', Ronaldo pen 68', Ramos 90+4') → pick 1–0, winner +10

Folio III — FT: Switzerland 2–0 Algeria BC Place, Vancouver · 11:00 PM ET

Switzerland v Algeria

FIFA № 19 (~1650 pts) — vs — FIFA № 28 (~1571 pts)

Official Pick

2–1

E[pts] 8.1 · exact 9.7%

The night-cap is priced near a coin-flip (2.05 / 4.00) despite a group-stage xG gulf — Switzerland 2.10 for / 0.78 against per game, Algeria 1.35 / 1.14. Mahrez (35, two goals and an assist v Austria) leads an Algeria side growing into the tournament but shipping chances; the Swiss return to BC Place, where they beat the hosts, on three days' extra rest. 1–1 is the single likeliest score — the winner points tip the pick to a one-goal Swiss edge, and after Belgium, the pens risk is priced in the memory. FT 2–0 — no coin-flip about it: Embolo pounced early (10'), Ndoye doubled it straight after the restart (46') and the Swiss defence never let Mahrez's farewell tour breathe — their first WC knockout win in 88 years. Right result, wrong clean sheet: our 2–1 takes the winner, +10 — and Switzerland march into the round of 16.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities

SUI 51%

26%

ALG 22%

Switzerland windraw (90')Algeria win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 60%1.49 – 1.00

Twelve-month form & stylew 25%1.50 – 1.20

In-tournament xG model 4thw 15%1.68 – 0.98

FIFA ranking (We 58%)w 15%1.44 – 1.12

Last-match vs expectation v2Δ softened+0.22 / +0.01

Final modelρ -0.1091.72 – 1.07

Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %

ALG →
SUI ↓

7.30–0

5.30–1

3.50–2

1.20–3

0.30–4

9.31–0

12.51–1

6.01–2

2.21–3

0.61–4

9.12–0

9.72–1

5.22–2

1.92–3

0.52–4

5.23–0

5.63–1

3.03–2

1.13–3

0.33–4

2.34–0

2.44–1

1.34–2

0.54–3

0.14–4

Grid covers 96.4% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 52.9% · 90-minute scoreline

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

Score	P(exact)	E[points]
2–1◂ PLAY	9.7%	8.07
1–0	9.3%	7.94
2–0	9.1%	7.88
3–1	5.6%	6.82
3–0	5.2%	6.72
1–1	12.5%	6.38

Switzerland — form & style

Group B winner, 7 pts (GF7 GA3) — drew Qatar 1–1 (90+4' equaliser conceded), beat Bosnia 4–1 & Canada 2–1.
Manzambi (20, 3 goals) & Vargas in form, Xhaka running midfield — the slate's best xG balance.
No suspensions; Widmer a minor doubt. Eight days' rest to Algeria's five, back at a familiar BC Place.

Algeria — form & style

Group J third (best-third), 4 pts (GF5 GA7) — lost Argentina 0–3, beat Jordan 2–1, drew Austria 3–3.
Mahrez's farewell run: brace + assist on MD3, his first WC goals at 35. Amoura an injury doubt up front.
The attack has grown (1.71 xG last out) but 7 conceded in three games — the leak Switzerland should find.

Odds (DK): 2.05 / 3.35 / 4.00 · O2.5 2.10 · U2.5 1.74 xG SUI 2.10 · ALG 1.35 · final 1.72–1.07 · ρ -0.11 · FT 2–0 (Embolo 10', Ndoye 46') → pick 2–1, winner +10

Appendix A

How the picks are made

STEP 01

Blend four signals

Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across the group stage, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.

STEP 02

Last-match read, softened v2

Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.

STEP 03

Fit Dixon-Coles & maximise points

A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.

Round of 32, Day 5 — graded: 30 points, the first 3-for-3 result day of the knockouts. Every pick landed the winner; every scoreline missed by a single goal. Spain 3–0 Austria (Oyarzabal 36' & 89', Porro 66') ran one past our 2–0. Portugal 2–1 Croatia was bedlam — Perišić 53', Ronaldo pen 68', Ramos 90+4', and Gvardiol's 90+13' equaliser chalked off by VAR; our 1–0 held the result through thirteen minutes of stoppage chaos. Switzerland 2–0 Algeria (Embolo 10', Ndoye 46') kept the clean sheet our 2–1 didn't trust. Day total 30/120; tournament 790/3360. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).