Friday 12 June 2026 FIFA World Cup 2026 · Matchday 2 Bulletin № 002
MM·26 Prediction Agent

The Expected
Points Bulletin

Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 70% · form 30% · ranking 15% ]

Matchday 1 · The Ledger
México 2–0 South Africa (3 red cards)
pick 1–0 → winner hit · +2 pts  ·  2–0 was our № 2 board play
Korea Republic 2–1 Czechia (late Oh winner)
pick 1–1 → missed · 0 pts  ·  2–1 ranked № 5 on our board
2/10 points so far
Folio I — Group B · Canada's first-ever home WC match BMO Field, Toronto · 15:00 ET

Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina

FIFA № 30 (1559 pts) — vs — FIFA № 64 (~1390 pts)

Official Pick
1–0
E[pts] 1.49 · exact 13.7%

Marsch's press meets Barbarez's bunker. 76% of Canada's matches went under 2.5 — and Bosnia have scored 0 or 1 in five straight.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities
CAN 53.6%
26.8%
19.6%
Canada windrawBosnia win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 70%1.53 – 0.86
Twelve-month form & stylew 30%1.60 – 0.75
FIFA ranking (We 65.7%)w 15%1.52 – 0.86
Final modelρ −0.0511.55 – 0.83
Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %
BIH →
CAN ↓
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.90–0
7.10–1
3.20–2
0.90–3
0.20–4
1
13.71–0
12.51–1
4.91–2
1.41–3
0.31–4
2
11.12–0
9.22–1
3.82–2
1.12–3
0.22–4
3
5.73–0
4.83–1
2.03–2
0.53–3
0.13–4
4
2.24–0
1.84–1
0.84–2
0.24–3
0.04–4

Grid covers 97.6% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 42.6%

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

ScoreP(exact)E[points]
1–0◂ PLAY13.7%1.487
2–011.1%1.408
2–19.2%1.351
3–05.7%1.247
3–14.8%1.218
4–02.2%1.141

Canada — form & style

  • 8W–8D–1L over twelve months, one regulation loss; just 0.36 goals against per game since September with 7 clean sheets in 11. 76% of matches under 2.5.
  • Marsch's high-intensity 4-4-2 press wins the ball high and breaks vertically — but is chronically blunt against organized blocks: 0–0 v Colombia, Ecuador and Tunisia; 1–1 v Ireland.
  • Alphonso Davies OUT (hamstring; targeted for mid-group return); best CB Bombito not match-fit. Jonathan David carries the goals. Canada is 0W–6L all-time at World Cups — every opener lost.

Bosnia & Herzegovina — form & style

  • 4W–6D–2L; qualified via play-off penalty wins over Wales and Italy — resilience is the identity, scoring is not: 0 or 1 goals in five straight, all five under 2.5.
  • Barbarez's 4-2-3-1 collapses into a deep 4-4-2 block; direct service to Džeko (40, ~64 minutes since March shoulder injury) with Demirović pressing around him.
  • Set pieces are the main weapon — Džeko, Kolašinac and Katić aerial routines. Never faced Canada before; no away win v a non-minnow in the window.
Odds used (FanDuel / DraftKings): 1.80 / 3.50 / 4.60 · O2.5 2.22 · U2.5 1.67 xG Canada 1.55 · Bosnia 0.83
Folio II — Group D · USA's home opener SoFi Stadium, Inglewood · 18:00 PT

USA v Paraguay

FIFA № 17 (1671 pts) — vs — FIFA № 41 (1505 pts)

Official Pick
1–0
E[pts] 1.38 · exact 13.3%

1–1 is a near-tie on probability (13.1%) but the winner-points backup decides it. Every Paraguay result in 12 months came by a one-goal margin.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities
USA 49.1%
28.0%
22.9%
USA windrawParaguay win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 70%1.44 – 0.91
Twelve-month form & stylew 30%1.40 – 0.90
FIFA ranking (We 65.4%)w 15%1.49 – 0.85
Final modelρ −0.0471.44 – 0.90
Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %
PAR →
USA ↓
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.20–0
8.10–1
3.90–2
1.20–3
0.30–4
1
13.31–0
13.11–1
5.61–2
1.71–3
0.41–4
2
10.02–0
9.02–1
4.02–2
1.22–3
0.32–4
3
4.83–0
4.33–1
1.93–2
0.63–3
0.13–4
4
1.74–0
1.64–1
0.74–2
0.24–3
0.04–4

Grid covers 98.2% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 41.3%

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

ScoreP(exact)E[points]
1–0◂ PLAY13.3%1.380
2–010.0%1.281
2–19.0%1.251
3–04.8%1.125
3–14.3%1.111
3–21.9%1.040

USA — form & style

  • 9W–2D–7L; ~1.0 goal/game against quality opposition, and no clean sheet since September — conceded 2+ in four straight warmups (incl. 2–5 Belgium, 1–2 Germany).
  • Pochettino's 4-2-3-1 morphs to a back three out of possession; aggressive man-press but exposed in transition behind the high line — exactly Paraguay's counter route.
  • Balogun is hot (19 Monaco goals); Pulisic on an 8-match international drought; Tessmann out, Richards a fitness gamble. Beat this same Paraguay 2–1 in November.

Paraguay — form & style

  • 5W–2D–4L; ~1.0 goal/game v real opposition. Alfaro's compact 4-4-2 low block: 10 clean sheets in qualifying, never conceded 3+, lowest-scoring qualifier in CONMEBOL.
  • Set pieces are the primary weapon — Gustavo Gómez back-post routines (the March winner v Greece came from one); Almirón released on the counter.
  • Every result in 12 months was a one-goal margin. Creative spark Julio Enciso OUT (hamstring, targeted for MD3). Comfortable in hostile away stadiums — won in Lima and Piraeus.
Odds used (median FanDuel / Caesars): 1.93 / 3.38 / 4.08 · O2.5 2.28 · U2.5 1.63 xG USA 1.44 · Paraguay 0.90
Appendix A

How the picks are made

STEP 01
De-vig the market

Closing 1X2 and over/under 2.5 odds are the strongest free predictor in football. We strip the bookmaker margin to recover true outcome probabilities, then nudge them with twelve-month form (30%) and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%).

STEP 02
Fit Dixon-Coles

A Poisson score model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ recovers each side's expected goals from those probabilities — giving a probability for every scoreline, including the draws plain Poisson gets wrong.

STEP 03
Maximise expected points

Every scoreline is ranked by P(exact)·5 + P(winner, not exact)·2. The best pick is often not the most likely score — see Folio II, where 1–1 nearly matches 1–0 on probability but loses on expected points.

!

Lock late. These numbers use mid-day odds. Line-ups drop ±70 minutes before kick-off and the market reprices — re-run the agent just before your contest locks. Scoring assumed: exact 5 pts, winner 2 pts; if your contest differs, the optimal picks may shift.