Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]
FIFA № 28 (~1581 pts) — vs — FIFA № 26 (~1585 pts)
The only tie of the round with the away side favourite (Egypt 2.50 / Australia 3.65) — and its lowest-scoring profile (28% over). Popovic's Australia play the deepest block in the field (28.3% possession v Türkiye, 0.57 xG/game); Egypt create through Salah (started despite a hamstring doubt) but leak 1.50 xGA/game. Locked at the deadline as 0–1; the fuller post-lock blend rates 0–0 a photo-finish 0.05 E[pts] ahead — a coin-toss between the round's two lowest scorelines, and a real pens threat either way. FT 90' 1–1 — the pens threat delivered: Ashour headed Egypt ahead (13'), Hany's own goal off O'Neill's free kick levelled it (55'), and after a goalless extra time Egypt took the shootout 4–2 (Salah among the scorers). The draw at ninety beats both our 0–1 and the post-lock 0–0 — 0 pts; the unplayed hedge 1–1 would have been the exact.
Grid covers 99.3% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 28.1% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 0–0 | 17.9% | 8.95 |
| 0–1◂ PLAY | 15.5% | 8.90 |
| 1–1 | 14.9% | 8.06 |
| 0–2 | 9.8% | 7.18 |
| 1–2 | 7.2% | 6.39 |
| 0–3 | 3.6% | 5.33 |
FIFA № 1 (~1907 pts) — vs — FIFA № 64 (~1403 pts)
The shortest price of the whole round (1.15): the world champions took a perfect group (GF8 GA1, +1.4 xG diff/game) and Messi has scored in seven straight World Cup games — a record he extends or ends in Miami. Cape Verde's fairy-tale run (three draws, Vozinha's clean sheets against Spain & Saudi Arabia) has been carried by a keeper conceding 1.60 xGA/game behind him. Argentina by two or more; the Over is favoured. FT 90' 1–1 — the fairy tale nearly swallowed the champions: Messi's record 20th WC goal (29') was cancelled by Duarte's drilled equaliser (59'), and ninety ended level. Lisandro Martínez restored the lead at 92', Lopes Cabral curled a stunner back at 103', and Diney Borges' own goal (111') finally broke Cape Verde 3–2. A win on the night, a draw on our scoring — the 2–0 pick takes 0.
Grid covers 90.6% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 55.6% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 2–0◂ PLAY | 15.5% | 12.55 |
| 1–0 | 13.4% | 11.94 |
| 3–0 | 12.3% | 11.60 |
| 2–1 | 8.2% | 10.37 |
| 4–0 | 7.3% | 10.11 |
| 3–1 | 6.5% | 9.86 |
FIFA № 11 (~1729 pts) — vs — FIFA № 65 (~1399 pts)
A possession siege in waiting: Colombia (unbeaten, one conceded, 59.8% average possession) against a Ghana side that held England 0–0 off a low block but has produced four shots on target all tournament — and is without both Kudus and Salisu. James pulls the strings for Díaz & a wasteful front line (0 goals from 1.63 xG v Portugal), so the siege may stay narrow: 1–0 is the model's strongest exact of the entire Round of 32 (16.9%), with the Under heavily favoured. FT 1–0 ★ — called to the goal: Arias turned in Suárez's cross on 14 minutes and the siege played out exactly as written — Ghana didn't manage a single shot on target and Colombia's third straight clean sheet carried it home. The round's strongest exact (16.9%) cashes for the full +40.
Grid covers 97.3% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 39.2% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0◂ PLAY | 16.9% | 11.35 |
| 2–0 | 14.4% | 10.59 |
| 2–1 | 8.6% | 8.85 |
| 3–0 | 7.9% | 8.65 |
| 3–1 | 4.8% | 7.70 |
| 4–0 | 3.3% | 7.26 |
Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across the group stage, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.
Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.
A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.
Round of 32, Day 6 — graded: 40 points, and the Round of 32 is complete at 830/3480. The star of the day was the night-cap: Colombia 1–0 Ghana (Arias 14', Ghana without a shot on target) — the round's strongest exact (16.9%) called to the goal, +40 ★. The other two proved the caveat's own warning: Australia 1–1 Egypt (Ashour 13', Hany OG 55'; Egypt 4–2 on pens) and Argentina 1–1 Cape Verde at 90' (Messi's record 20th WC goal at 29', Duarte 59'; Argentina 3–2 in extra time) both grade as draws under the 90-minute rule — our 0–1 and 2–0 take 0. Five of sixteen R32 ties went past ninety minutes; the pens rule has now cost us five win-picks. Day total 40/120. On to the Round of 16 — Spain v Portugal headlines Monday in Dallas. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).