Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]
FIFA № 30 (~1560 pts) — vs — FIFA № 7 (~1755 pts)
Canada's first-ever round of 16 meets Morocco's 2022-semifinal pedigree — and the market backs the Atlas Lions (1.87) even though Canada own the better tournament numbers (1.85 xG for / 0.69 against per game, to Morocco's 1.66 / 0.91). Davies makes his first start of the World Cup; Bounou's shootout heroics just sank the Dutch. The model reads a genuine coin-flip with a fat draw hump — after five win-picks died on the pens rule, 1–1 is both the likeliest single score (14.5%) and the value play. FT 0–3 — no coin-flip after all: Ounahi ran the game and scored twice (50', 82'), Rahimi added the third at 90+8', and Canada's tournament-best xG numbers never showed up against the Atlas Lions' block. Our first deliberate draw pick dies to a rout — 0 pts. Morocco meet France in the quarters.
Grid covers 98.1% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 45.5% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1◂ PLAY | 14.5% | 7.39 |
| 0–1 | 9.6% | 7.05 |
| 1–2 | 8.8% | 6.81 |
| 0–2 | 8.0% | 6.56 |
| 0–0 | 10.1% | 6.06 |
| 1–3 | 4.1% | 5.39 |
FIFA № 41 (~1505 pts) — vs — FIFA № 3 (~1870 pts)
The heaviest favourite of the knockouts (1.17): France have scored three-plus in all four games (13 for, 2 against) and Mbappé's brace against Sweden — 45' and 74' — tied Messi's all-time WC record of 18. Across the halfway line stands the bunker that produced perhaps the greatest World Cup upset ever: Paraguay's 0.36 xG/game low block that took Germany to pens and won. Mid-90s July-4th heat in Philadelphia is the only leveller in sight — 0–2 is the play, with 0–1 the grind-it-out hedge. FT 0–1 — the bunker bent but barely broke: a chippy, heat-slowed game where the only goal was Mbappé's VAR-awarded penalty (70', after a missed foul on Doué was flagged). Gill dove the wrong way; the dam otherwise held. Our 0–2 takes the winner (+10) — the grind-it-out 0–1 hedge we wrote down was the exact.
Grid covers 92.9% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 49.4% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 0–2◂ PLAY | 16.9% | 12.78 |
| 0–1 | 15.2% | 12.25 |
| 0–3 | 12.3% | 11.40 |
| 1–2 | 7.8% | 10.05 |
| 0–4 | 6.7% | 9.73 |
| 1–3 | 5.7% | 9.41 |
Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across its four games so far, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.
Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.
A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.
Round of 16, Day 1 — graded: 10 points, and a lesson in both directions. Canada 0–3 Morocco (Ounahi 50' & 82', Rahimi 90+8') blew up our first deliberate draw pick — the numbers said coin-flip, the pitch said Atlas Lions, 0 pts. Paraguay 0–1 France (Mbappé's VAR-awarded penalty, 70') delivered the result but not the scoreline: the bunker held far better than 0–2 assumed, and the 0–1 hedge named in the folio was the exact. Day total 10/80; tournament 840/3560. Tomorrow: Brazil–Norway and Mexico–England at the Azteca. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).