Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]
FIFA № 6 (~1790 pts) — vs — FIFA № 31 (~1525 pts)
Brazil are favourites (1.80) with the tournament's best attack — 2.35 xG/game, Vinícius on four goals — but two quirks give the model pause: Brazil have never beaten Norway (0W 2D 2L, including the '98 World Cup), and both sides escaped their R32 ties late (Martinelli 90+6', Haaland 86'). Norway score in every game (10 in four, Haaland 5) and leak in every game (1.38 xGA/game, the worst among the sixteen survivors). An open, end-to-end read — the Over is favoured and 2–1 is the play. FT 1–2 — the jinx we wrote about won: Haaland struck twice late (79', 90') to send the five-time champions home, Neymar's 90+10' penalty a footnote. Norway reach their first-ever quarter-final — Haaland on 7 — and Brazil still have never beaten them. Our 2–1 read the goals right and the winner wrong: 0 pts.
Grid covers 95.2% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 58.9% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 2–1◂ PLAY | 9.7% | 8.07 |
| 2–0 | 8.2% | 7.60 |
| 1–0 | 7.2% | 7.31 |
| 3–1 | 6.0% | 6.96 |
| 3–0 | 5.1% | 6.67 |
| 3–2 | 3.6% | 6.23 |
FIFA № 14 (~1754 pts) — vs — FIFA № 4 (~1851 pts)
England are favourites (2.25) — but barely: 2,240 metres of altitude, a sold-out Azteca and a Mexico side that hasn't conceded all tournament (8–0 across four) compress everything. England's engine has sputtered — 0–0 v Ghana, a comeback needed against DR Congo, Rice's hamstring tight — while Kane (13 career WC goals, past Pelé) meets the only intact clean sheet left. A knife-edge 32/30/38 with the Under heavy: 1–1 is the likeliest single score and, once again, the value play. FT 2–3 — the cauldron got a classic instead of a stalemate: Bellingham scored twice in 98 seconds (36', 38'), Quiñones answered (42'), and after Quansah's red (54') ten-man England traded penalties — Kane 60', Jiménez 69' — then repelled the siege. Mexico's four-game clean-sheet run ended with three conceded; our 1–1 gets 0. England meet Norway in the quarters.
Grid covers 98.7% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 40.7% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 1–1◂ PLAY | 14.1% | 7.23 |
| 0–1 | 11.1% | 7.12 |
| 0–0 | 10.8% | 6.24 |
| 1–0 | 10.0% | 6.23 |
| 1–2 | 8.0% | 6.18 |
| 0–2 | 7.3% | 5.96 |
Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across its four games so far, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.
Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.
A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.
Round of 16, Day 2 — graded: 0 points, the first blank day of the tournament. The pattern held right up until it didn't: Brazil 1–2 Norway (Haaland 79' & 90', Neymar pen 90+10') — we cited the never-beaten-Norway jinx and picked Brazil anyway; the jinx, and Haaland's seventh, won. Mexico 2–3 England was the wildest game of the round — Bellingham's 98-second brace, a red card, two penalties and a ten-man rearguard — and it buried our second straight draw pick along with Mexico's clean-sheet run. Both games hit our modelled goal totals but not our results; the coin-flips have gone 0-for-3 this round. Day total 0/80; tournament 840/3640. Tomorrow: Portugal–Spain in Dallas and USA–Belgium in Seattle. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).