Tuesday 7 July 2026 FIFA World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Day 4 Bulletin № 027

MM·26 Prediction Agent

The Expected
Points Bulletin

Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]

The Ledger

R16 · 4 Jul

10 pts

MAR rout · FRA ground it out

R16 · 5 Jul

0 pts

NOR stun BRA · ENG tame Azteca

R16 · 6 Jul

20 pts

ESP & BEL — both winners called

R16 · 7 Jul

20 pts

ARG comeback · SUI–COL 0–0

880/3800points
thru R16 · complete

Folio I — FT: Argentina 3–2 Egypt Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta · 12:00 PM ET

Argentina v Egypt

FIFA № 1 (~1907 pts) — vs — FIFA № 29 (~1585 pts)

Official Pick

2–0

E[pts] 9.9 · exact 11.4%

Messi against Salah, probably for the last time on this stage. The champions arrive shaken — Cape Verde took them to 111 minutes — but still dominant on the numbers (1.94 xG for / 0.62 against per game) with Messi leading the Golden Boot on 7. Egypt are unbeaten, riding their first-ever knockout win, and their whole tournament (two 1–1s, a shootout) points at hanging on for pens — but Salah played 120 minutes on a strained hamstring and Egypt leak as much as they create (1.36 xGA/game). 2–0 is the play; the draw at 4.70 is the live danger, not an Egypt win. FT 3–2 — the danger nearly arrived from further out: Egypt led 2–0 (Ibrahim 15′, Zico 67′) with Shobeir saving a Messi penalty in between. Then eleven minutes of madness — Romero 79′, Messi 83′ (his 8th), Enzo Fernández on the counter at 90+2′ — the greatest comeback of the tournament, in ninety. Our 2–0 takes the winner, +10. Argentina meet Switzerland in the quarters.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities

ARG 64%

21%

EGY 14%

Argentina windraw (90')Egypt win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 60%2.05 – 0.62

Twelve-month form & stylew 25%1.90 – 1.05

In-tournament xG model 4thw 15%1.82 – 0.82

FIFA ranking (We 77%)w 15%2.01 – 0.73

Last-match vs expectation v2Δ softened+0.07 / +0.11

Final modelρ -0.0682.06 – 0.86

Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %

EGY →
ARG ↓

6.00–0

4.00–1

2.00–2

0.60–3

0.10–4

10.41–0

10.21–1

4.11–2

1.21–3

0.31–4

11.42–0

9.82–1

4.32–2

1.22–3

0.32–4

7.83–0

6.83–1

2.93–2

0.83–3

0.23–4

4.04–0

3.54–1

1.54–2

0.44–3

0.14–4

Grid covers 94.0% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 55.9% · 90-minute scoreline

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

Score	P(exact)	E[points]
2–0◂ PLAY	11.4%	9.86
1–0	10.4%	9.56
2–1	9.8%	9.39
3–0	7.8%	8.79
3–1	6.8%	8.47
4–0	4.0%	7.65

Argentina — form & style

Group J winner, 9 pts (GF8 GA1) — 3–0 Algeria, 2–0 Austria, 3–1 Jordan. R32: 3–2 AET Cape Verde — 1–1 at 90' (Messi 29'), won on L. Martínez 92' & Borges' OG 111'.
Messi: 7 goals from 3.82 xG — first player to score 7+ at two World Cups. The machine wobbled but out-created Cape Verde 2.35–0.76.
Cramp knocks from the 120 minutes (Medina, Enzo Fernández) and a González ankle worry — none confirmed out. No suspensions.

Egypt — form & style

Group G runner-up, 5 pts unbeaten — 3–1 New Zealand (first-ever WC win), 1–1 Belgium & Iran. R32: 1–1 Australia, pens 4–2 (Ashour 13'; 4-for-4 in the shootout).
First knockout win in Egyptian history, first R16 since 1934. Ashour in form; the defence leaks 1.36 xGA/game though.
Salah played 120 min on a strained hamstring — 1 goal from 1.94 xG this tournament; his legs are the swing factor again.

Odds (FD): 1.34 / 4.70 / 10.0 · O2.5 1.83 · U2.5 1.83 xG ARG 1.94 · EGY 1.34 · final 2.06–0.86 · ρ -0.07 · FT 3–2 (Romero 79′, Messi 83′, Enzo 90+2′) → pick 2–0, winner +10

Folio II — FT 90′: Switzerland 0–0 Colombia · SUI 4–3 pens BC Place, Vancouver · 4:00 PM ET

Switzerland v Colombia

FIFA № 19 (~1650 pts) — vs — FIFA № 13 (~1729 pts)

Official Pick

1–1

E[pts] 8.0 · exact 15.5%

The last R16 ticket, and the market makes Colombia favourites (2.25 / 3.60) — Opta agrees (42/30/28). Both sides are defensive machines with blunt edges: Colombia have conceded once in four (three straight clean sheets) but score 0.08 per shot, the worst left; Switzerland counter ruthlessly (2–0 Algeria on 44% possession) and are back at BC Place a third time. Two clean-sheet teams, a juiced Under (1.61), and a fat draw hump: 1–1 is the clear play this time — a full point ahead of the alternatives, not a photo-finish. FT 90′ 0–0 — the shape was exactly right: two clean-sheet machines cancelled out through 120 scoreless minutes, and Switzerland took the shootout 4–3 (Sánchez off the crossbar, Hernández saved, Vargas decisive) to reach a first quarter-final since 1954. Our 1–1 banks the draw (+10) — the third draw pick is the first to cash; the 0–0 exact goes down as the one that got away.

Win · Draw · Winblended probabilities

SUI 31%

34%

COL 36%

Switzerland windraw (90')Colombia win

Signal Blend — expected goals

Closing market, de-viggedw 60%1.00 – 1.33

Twelve-month form & stylew 25%1.30 – 1.45

In-tournament xG model 4thw 15%1.29 – 1.07

FIFA ranking (We 42%)w 15%1.06 – 1.38

Last-match vs expectation v2Δ softened-0.09 / -0.20

Final modelρ -0.1501.02 – 1.12

Scoreline Probability Grid — P(exact) %

COL →
SUI ↓

13.80–0

11.20–1

7.40–2

2.80–3

0.80–4

9.91–0

15.51–1

7.51–2

2.81–3

0.81–4

6.12–0

6.82–1

3.82–2

1.42–3

0.42–4

2.13–0

2.33–1

1.33–2

0.53–3

0.13–4

0.54–0

0.64–1

0.34–2

0.14–3

0.04–4

Grid covers 99.0% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 36.2% · 90-minute scoreline

Pick Ledger — ranked by expected points

Score	P(exact)	E[points]
1–1◂ PLAY	15.5%	7.99
0–0	13.8%	7.49
0–1	11.2%	6.94
1–0	9.9%	6.03
1–2	7.5%	5.85
0–2	7.4%	5.81

Switzerland — form & style

Group B winner, 7 pts unbeaten — 1–1 Qatar, 4–1 Bosnia, 2–1 Canada. R32: 2–0 Algeria (Embolo 10', Ndoye 48 seconds into the second half) — first knockout win since 1938.
Manzambi (3 goals, 20) the breakout; Embolo on 2; unbeaten in 10 competitive games. Efficient on 44% possession.
No injuries or suspensions reported; a day's extra rest on Colombia and a third match at a familiar BC Place.

Colombia — form & style

Group K winner, 7 pts — 3–1 Uzbekistan, 1–0 DR Congo, 0–0 Portugal. R32: 1–0 Ghana (Arias 14'; Ghana had no shot on target).
One goal conceded in four; 2.18 xG v Ghana was their best-ever in a WC knockout — but 2 goals from their last 60+ shots.
Díaz targets the right channel, James conducts, Arias arriving late. Travel from Kansas City on a day less rest.

Odds (FD/DK): 3.60 / 3.00 / 2.25 · O2.5 ~2.30 · U2.5 1.61 xG SUI 2.21 · COL 1.60 · final 1.02–1.12 · ρ -0.15 · FT 90′ 0–0 (SUI 4–3 pens) → pick 1–1, draw +10

Appendix A

How the picks are made

STEP 01

Blend four signals

Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across its four games so far, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.

STEP 02

Last-match read, softened v2

Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.

STEP 03

Fit Dixon-Coles & maximise points

A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.

Round of 16, Day 4 — graded: 20 points, and the Round of 16 closes at 880/3800. Argentina 3–2 Egypt was the comeback of the tournament — 2–0 down with a Messi penalty saved, then Romero, Messi and Enzo Fernández inside eleven minutes; our 2–0 banked the winner. Switzerland 0–0 Colombia (SUI 4–3 on pens) played out exactly as modelled — two defensive machines, no goals in 120 minutes — and the third draw pick of the knockouts became the first to cash (+10); only the 0–0 exact eluded us. R16 pick record: 6 winners, 2 blanks from 8. Quarter-finals: Morocco–France, Norway–England, Spain–Belgium, Argentina–Switzerland. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).