Scoreline picks that maximise contest points — not headlines. [ market 60% · form 25% · xG 15% · ranking 15% · last-match v2 ]
FIFA № 3 (~1871 pts) — vs — FIFA № 7 (~1755 pts)
The 2022 semifinal, replayed in Foxborough. France are five-for-five (14 goals, 2 against) with Mbappé level with Messi on 7 — but the market's 1.57 hides how live Morocco are: unbeaten in 90 minutes all tournament, unbeaten in 10 since lifting the AFCON, fresh off routing a co-host 3–0. The Atlas Lions' one soft spot is that their 10 goals ride 8.3 xG of finishing heat, and Saibari (their top scorer) is a game-time hamstring call. France haven't needed more than a goal in a knockout yet — 1–0, the same scoreline as the Paraguay tie, is the play; the draw hump (28%) is the pens warning. FT 2–0 — the rematch went the way of the first leg: Bounou saved Mbappé’s penalty (28′) and Morocco held the line for an hour, then Mbappé curled the opener (60′) and slid Dembélé in six minutes later. France into a third straight semifinal; our 1–0 takes the winner, one goal off the exact — again.
Grid covers 97.7% of outcomes · over 2.5 goals: 45.8% · 90-minute scoreline
| Score | P(exact) | E[points] |
|---|---|---|
| 1–0◂ PLAY | 11.2% | 8.19 |
| 2–0 | 9.4% | 7.63 |
| 2–1 | 9.3% | 7.61 |
| 1–1 | 13.4% | 6.82 |
| 3–0 | 4.7% | 6.24 |
| 3–1 | 4.7% | 6.23 |
Start from the de-vigged closing market (60%), then blend twelve-month form & style (25%), an in-tournament xG model (15%) rating each team on the expected goals it created & conceded across its four games so far, and the FIFA ranking's Elo expectancy (15%). The xG signal is shrunk to the league mean so it nudges rather than dictates.
Each team's xG is nudged by how its most recent game beat/missed expectation; the attack term (finishing) is halved because it regresses. The read uses each side's final group game — now a week old for today's slate, so treat it as a light thumb on the scale.
A Poisson model with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction ρ gives a probability for every scoreline. Each is ranked by 30·P(exact) + 10·P(1X2) — the contest's scoring, which stack (an exact hit is worth 40). Knockouts are scored on the 90-minute result, so the model still picks within 90 minutes.
Quarter-finals, Day 1 — graded: +10. France 2–0 Morocco: Bounou’s 28′ penalty save kept the rematch scoreless for an hour before Mbappé (60′) and Dembélé (66′) settled it in regulation — no pens lottery this time. Our 1–0 banked the winner; the second goal cost the exact, the eighth time this tournament a pick has missed by exactly one goal. Tournament 890/3840. Next: Spain–Belgium tomorrow at SoFi; Norway–England and Argentina–Switzerland on Saturday. Scoring: 30 exact · 10 winner (max 40).
Across 24 graded knockout picks: the model said 25% of games end level after ninety — 25% did (6 of 24). It projected 2.62 goals a game — 2.65 arrived. It claimed ~12.9% on its exact picks and landed 8.3% (2 of 24) — inside one standard error at this sample size. Nothing in the data says the probabilities are wrong.
Knockout haul: 210 of 960 (21.9% of max) against the model's own pre-match expectation of ~21%. Results hit 15/24 (win-picks 14/20 = 70%); two exacts ★ (Canada 0–1, Colombia 1–0). The actual scoreline landed in our published top-three 55% of the time against a modelled 33% — the grid's shape has been better than advertised; the top line has been unlucky within it.
Variance dominates at n=24. Two behavioural rules survive the audit: coin-flip draw picks stay (the draw share was priced exactly right), and no exact-chasing — the second-ranked scoreline has cashed five times to the top line's one, a gap comfortably inside luck; abandoning the E[pts] argmax would trade points for stories. Eight picks remain (four quarter-finals, two semis, the bronze final and the final): expected haul ≈ +70, projected finish ≈ 950/4120.